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Expe February 27, 2006

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From: “” Add to Address BookAdd to Address Book
Subject: European & US Summary
Date: 24 Feb 2006 18:09:17 -0500

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It`s all About Central Banks
2/24/2006 5:20 pm: EUR/$..1.1871 $/JPY..116.88 GBP/$..1.7446 $/CHF..1.3173 AUD/$..0.7392 $/CAD..1.1490It`s all About Central Banks by Ashraf LaidiIf there were anything to take away from this past week, it would have to be that central bank policy’s impact on FX supercedes the effect of economic data. The only reports which had lasting impact on FX were the relatively benign 0.2% rise in US core CPI and the minutes of the Bank of England’s February rate decision, which showed a more dovish 7-1 vote against a rate cut. Both reports were associated with central bank policy; with the former suggesting inflation may have acquiesced for the Fed to maintain its tightening and the latter indicating that the BoE is not yet leaning towards an easing. Similarly, Tuesday’s release of the FOMC minutes commanded all of the markets’ attention that the dollar showed only a muted reaction despite the 1.1% rise in the January Leading Economic Indicators Index, which the was biggest increase in six months and the fourth straight monthly increase.

Today’s dismal 10.2% drop in January durable goods was a resounding example of the markets’ shrugging of data, in favor of the Fed.

In Japan, markets paid more attention to the remarks from BoJ Governor Fukui regarding monetary policy, lifting the yen by 2 full points while ignoring the release of Japan’s first trade deficit in 5 years. Fukui’s indication telling Parliament that conditions were improving for a policy change and that the Bank has to “take risks” were a strong positive sign for the currency. The CPI report due on March 3, expected to show the fourth consecutive monthly increase in inflation –by as much as 0.4% y/y-could further lift speculation and prepare markets for a policy change 6 days after. We expect the BoJ to use the April policy meeting for a more explicit signaling of a policy change-after the Q1 tankan survey-and use the March 8-9 meeting for a verbal signaling, which could add as much as 5 yen to the Japanese currency.

Last but not least, the 14 ½ year high showing in Germany’s IFO went almost unnoticed by the euro, which sustained renewed selling. We mentioned earlier today that a possible reason to the euro sell-off may have been traders’ cautiousness ahead of today’s triple appearance of Fed speak from Bernanke, Ferguson and Poole. While Ferguson’s insight may not matter since his planned resignation before the March FOMC meeting, Poole’s comments had no impact as he mostly reiterated that the Fed remained data dependent.

Next week’s expected decision by the ECB to raise rates by 25 bps is perfectly priced in, but the market will monitor whether JC Trichet hints at further tightening into the subsequent month. So far the ECB has shown high marks for signaling its desire to deliver incremental tightening, rather than sending the impression that it will tighten every month.

But at a time when the economically ominous inversion in the US yield curve is further deepening (-16 bps today), markets are scrutinizing any impending signs of economic cooling from the data. We expect the yield curve to invert further as long as US stocks continue to show no signs of a retreat and the Fed is priced to tighten. Even if say next week’s data round of US data (ISM, core PCE, Consumer Confidence) do come in weak, the Fed remains preoccupied by the need to preempt inflationary pressures. Barring any event risk, a negative surprise from the February US payrolls, 2 straight months of weak ISM and negative housing data could sway the Fed to remain on hold next month. The probability for a Fed rate hike falling towards at least 50% is the only factor that will lead to lasting support for EURUSD and GBPUSD. The odds of that occurring currently are at 20-25%.

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Punishing Yen Pauses, Fed Speak in Focus
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One Response to “Expe”

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